Lincoln, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS63 KBIS 191458
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon through this evening. Main hazards will be hail up
  to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a tornado
  or two possible. Heavy rainfall also possible with any
  thunderstorm.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon
  through Sunday night, and again Monday afternoon through
  Monday night. Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds,
  and heavy rainfall.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
  next week.

- High temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s to lower
  80s through midweek next week, before warming up late in the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Visibility has rapidly improved across Wells and Foster, so
expired the remainder of the Dense Fog advisory with this quick
update. Out attention now turns to convection today into
tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Visibility continues to rapidly improve across central North
Dakota, so allowed the bulk of the Dense Fog advisory to expire.
Exception is Wells and Foster where web cams and sfc
observations still indicate dense fog, so have maintained these
two counties till 10 AM CDT for now, and will evaluate further
in the next 15-20 min. A few showers and storms west, so POPs
were modified to account for this activity. No other major
updates at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas of dense fog continue to be reported this morning, and
have spread into some north central portions. Have expanded the
Dense Fog Advisory westward as a result. Some thunderstorms have
developed in eastern Montana along an elevated warm front. These
are moving eastward, although instability in North Dakota is
lacking at the moment. Added in some slight chance pops encase
they can hold together and cross into western North Dakota this
morning. The chance for severe weather still mainly remains for
this afternoon and evening in western and some central
portions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Surface high pressure across the eastern half of North Dakota
has brought light winds and fog. Reports and webcams currently
showing this fog to be dense and somewhat widespread. Thus have
issued a Dense Fog Advisory for areas impacted by this fog until
10 AM CDT this morning. After this fog diminishes, HRRR Smoke
still showing smoke returning across eastern half of North
Dakota today through tonight, although RAP Smoke and Canadian
Smoke models are not as aggressive. For now have continued with
smoke mention this afternoon through tonight. Today, a weak
warm front ahead of a developing surface low will set up across
the west. This could be the focus for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening. Shear
during this time period is abundant and generally over 45 knots.
The shear vector is also perpendicular to somewhat angled to
the mentioned warm front, possibly promoting discrete
supercells. The limiting factor today will be a lack of higher
instability as MUCAPE is generally between 1000 to 2000 J/KG.
There may also be some capping to contend with as 700 mb temps
warm slightly today. However if discrete supercells can form
today, very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts to 60 mph are possible. With the high amounts of shear at
all levels there is a low tornado threat today in the west.
Given all this, SPC has upgraded todays outlook to Slight Risk
for much of western ND, and maintaining the Marginal Risk for
much of central ND. WPC also has a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall given high Pwats today. 24 hour HREF precipitation
stamps are showing 2 to near 3 inches of QPF for some areas on
the higher end, with generally around a 0.5 to 1 inch of QPF
possible as the mean. Overall those with afternoon and evening
plans should play close attention today to any developing
thunderstorms. Upper level wave moves across the area tonight,
continuing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. MUCAPE and
Shear remain at least modest through the night, perhaps some
isolated severe weather is possible. Heavy rain may also be
possible with any thunderstorm activity through tonight. High
temperatures today will generally be in the 70s to lower 80s,
with lows tonight generally in the 50s. Breezy southeast winds
may also be found today, especially in the west.

Unstable air mass looks to remain on Sunday with the mentioned
warm front lifting slightly north. Surface low combined with an
upper level trough could also help promote shower and
thunderstorm potential. Storm mode may be a little more messy on
Sunday as the shear vector eventually becomes parallel to the
surface boundary. This could switch storm mode to multi cluster
and linear. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still possible
given high cape and shear environment, and SPC has maintained
Marginal Risk across much of the area. Large hail and strong
winds will be the main threat, along with potentially heavy
rainfall in thunderstorms. WPC has a Marginal to Slight risk for
excessive rainfall on Sunday given high Pwats and a storm mode
switch. Highs on Sunday will be similar and in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Breezy southerly winds may be found across eastern
North Dakota. Shower and thunderstorm chances may continue
through Sunday night, with perhaps an isolated severe storm
possible. Lows are forecast in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Monday,
upper low lingers to our north, while a surface low moves to our
south, and a boundary stalls across the state. The result will
be more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with perhaps an
isolated severe storm possible. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk
for the southern half of the state for Monday. Hail and winds
with some heavy rainfall are the likely main hazards for Monday.
There is increase instability and shear on Monday, which could
lead to an isolated tornado risk depending on placement of the
surface low. Warmer temperatures may also be found on Monday,
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms
could then linger through Monday night, with lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s.

Broad troughing followed by unsettled zonal flow could then lead
to near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to much of
next week. CSU-MLP showing at least low chances for severe
weather each day with these thunderstorm chances as well. Heavy
rainfall may also be possible with thunderstorm activity through
at least mid week, with NBM chances for an inch or more in a 24
hour being being 10 to 30 percent. Temperatures look to be near
normal to start the week, with perhaps a mild warmup possible
late in the week. NBM temperature spreads remain somewhat large,
although hint at 90 degrees returning for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas of fog will bring IFR conditions to some central and
eastern sites this morning, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and
eastward. Once fog diminishes later this morning Look for VFR
conditions for most of today. There could be some afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to central,
perhaps bringing brief MVFR conditions. Used PROB30 groups to
sites with better chances for this activity. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity may then linger through tonight, with
continued use of PROB30 groups for sites with better chances.
Winds will become southeast today, and may be breezy in some
western locations. Eastern North Dakota may see visibility
reductions from wildfire smoke this afternoon through tonight.
Confidence was not high enough to place in TAFs at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin